Dia das Bruxas, again
Por que subiram tanto as bolsas mundiais, se os resultados das empresas não parecem justificar esse optimismo?
Nouriel Roubini acredita que se trata de uma nova bolha alimentada por dinheiro barato. Para além das taxas de juro serem quase nulas, quem se endivida em dólares que se desvalorizam todos os dias está de facto a contrair empréstimos a taxas negativas:
"Let us sum up: traders are borrowing at negative 20 per cent rates to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game looks like a genius – even if they are just riding a huge bubble financed by a large negative cost of borrowing – as the total returns have been in the 50-70 per cent range since March."
Se a interpretação estiver correcta, o futuro não se afigura brilhante:
"This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall."
